A little relief. This is what experts believe the climate could bring us in 2025. After an anomalously warm period in which numerous records have been broken, next year the temperatures will give us a slight respite, bittersweet news.
A break. The British Meteorological Agency Met Office has announced its forecast for the year 2025. The agency is confident that the global average temperature remains around 1.41º Celsius above the average of the preindustrial period. The prediction includes its margin of error: the estimates indicate a temperature between 1.29º and 1.53º above average.
That is, although it is expected that the temperature will not exceed the limit of 1.5º established in the Paris Agreementsthis possibility is not completely ruled out. The estimates therefore represent a partial relief after this year became the first to exceed this figure of one and a half degrees.
From 2023. The average temperature of the planet has broken numerous records in the last two years. From June 2023 to June 2024, the world had 13 consecutive months in which average temperature figures exceeded records. Since July of this year, if temperatures have not broken new records, it has been because of the 2023 data.
If we look at the difference between the pre-industrial average and the observed temperatures, we will see that of the last 17 months (between July 2023 and November 2024), 16 showed temperatures 1.5º above average preindustrial for said month.
Bittersweet news. A temperature 1.41º above the pre-industrial average would be a relief. But little or nothing more than that. The figure would place next year as the third warmest after 2023, when the temperature was between 1.45º and 1.48º above this average; and after 2024, which could see temperatures more than 1.55º above.
Evolution of global average temperatures throughout the 21st century. Met Office.
Trend and oscillation. The upward trend in global temperatures remains clear, but at least the variability allows the impact of this increase in temperatures to be temporarily reduced. The existence of this natural variability requires some caution when interpreting data: although this year’s temperatures have been above a degree and a half, perhaps we cannot yet speak of the trend having reached this figure.
In any case, we are still very close to this barrier and on our way to overcoming it. The existence of variability does not imply that the trend is less marked.
Variability. Part of the variability we see from year to year is due to a well-known phenomenon: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although the epicenter of this oscillation is in the central strip of the eastern Pacific Ocean, its effects are global.
During the last few yearsthe oscillation has predominantly been in its warm phase, El Niño. This has caused global temperatures to rise above what would be expected in another context.
However, over the last few months, El Niño has disappeared and meteorologists are hoping for the soon arrival of La Niñathe cold phase of the oscillation. This is the main factor why meteorologists expect 2025 to be a slightly colder year, in contrast to the last two years we have been experiencing.
Image | Andrey Grinkevich