During 2023, and, presumably, so far in 2024, the Chinese military, research centers specialized in artificial intelligence (AI) controlled by the Chinese state and universities have bought cutting-edge semiconductors whose export to China was expressly prohibited by sanctions approved by the US Government.

For the US and its allies, it is materially impossible to guarantee that the cutting-edge semiconductors controlled by the bans will not reach the country led by Xi Jinping. In fact, as we have just seen, they are coming. However, the data we have They reflect that they are landing with difficulty and in quantities lower than what China presumably needs to sustain the development of both its scientific research in the field of AI and to guarantee innovation in the field of its military capacity.

Intermediaries are China’s best allies

Sanctions are effective to the extent that they are an instrument that allows the US Administration to control the export of the goods whose distribution you need to supervisebut the Chinese government and companies in this gigantic Asian country can resort to parallel import routes to get what they need. That is precisely what they are doing. A priori, India seemed to be the main gateway to China for the integrated circuits banned by the US, but now we know that several Southeast Asian countries are responsible.

This is, at least, what the US Department of Commerce suspects, which is in charge, among other tasks, of ensuring compliance with the prohibitions. According to SCMPSingapore and Malaysia are the main centers of smuggling of AI chips to China. This is precisely what worries the US, and it is going to take measures to remedy it. Gina Raimondo, the US Secretary of Commerce, and Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, are leading the preparation of a new sanctions package aimed specifically at the countries I have mentioned in this paragraph, and perhaps a few more.

The objective of these bans is to prevent countries that act as intermediaries and facilitate the arrival of cutting-edge GPUs for AI in China from continuing to support the country led by Xi Jinping. Furthermore, presumably these sanctions They will come into force immediately. Before December ends.

If so, the US will have deployed within a month two packages of bans extraordinarily ambitious, if we keep in mind that on December 2, what we mistakenly considered at that time came into force the “final fireworks” of the Joe Biden Administration. China responded shortly afterand will surely do so again when the next bans come.

Image | ASML

More information | SCMP