At the moment the Spanish Government keeps your itinerary intact: the nuclear plants that are in operation will stop producing electricity between 2027 and 2035. Their definitive stop will occur beyond 40 years of useful life. In fact, Almaraz I and II will stop operating after 44 years of service; Ascó I and II at 46 years old; Cofrentes at 45 years old, and, finally, Vandellós II and Trillo at 47 years old. Be that as it may the debate about the Spanish nuclear blackout is on the table, and in all likelihood will continue to be the subject of discussion for years.

If we stick to its energy model, Germany, which closed its last nuclear power plant on April 15, 2023, and Spain are going against the tide. And the commitment of some countries to nuclear energy is beyond any doubt. The US, China and France lead the classification that counts the number of nuclear reactors that nations that have opted for this form of electricity generation have. The proliferation of data centers to artificial intelligence (AI) has unleashed in the US an almost excessive interest in the construction of more nuclear plantsbut in this area the most ambitious country is China.

And the nation led by Xi Jinping has the same number of nuclear reactors than France in operation: 56. Only the US surpasses these two countries with its 94 active nuclear reactors. However, China is building 30 more reactors and plans to commission another 37. Presumably it will not take long to go toe-to-toe with the US in this area. In any case, nuclear fission energy has not said its last word. And according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the world’s nuclear power will multiply by 2.5 in 2050.

Spain faces great challenges

The IAEA prediction describes the most favorable scenario for the development of nuclear energy, in which the 372 GW of global nuclear power existing in 2023 will gradually increase to 950 GW in 2050. In this scenario this form of energy generation will be seen driven by climate objectives and the need to sustain electricity supply. However, the IAEA also proposes a moderate growth scenario in which global nuclear power will grow to 514 GW, which represents 40% more than the power currently available.

In the current situation it is evident that abandoning nuclear energy completely, which is what the Spanish Administration has proposed, requires developing an energy model different from the current one in which the energy that comes from nuclear plants can be replaced effectively by other energy sources that do not involve the emission of greenhouse gases. This is the great challenge that Spain faces.

Pedro Fresco (@PedroFresco), a renowned expert in energy markets and renewable energies, holds that “the nuclear power plants will end up closing, but they have to close little by little. The reason why a closure schedule has been made, in addition to technical and logistical reasons, is not to affect the emissions of the electrical system in a significant way “Now it is not feasible to close them all, but it is possible to do it little by little.”

Besides, Pedro points out that “the calendar for the nuclear blackout is not only realistic, but the Spanish Government itself has managed to get many of the companies that own it, which wanted to close the nuclear power plants after forty years because They were not profitablehave agreed to extend the operation until the ages of forty-five and forty-six. In fact, it may happen that someone wants to revise the date of the nuclear shutdown with the purpose of bringing it forward.”

The vision of Alfredo García, a nuclear energy expert much better known in X for his alter ego @NuclearOperator, It’s very different. “I think it is a very electoral strategy. The Socialist Party has been incorporating in its electoral program for many years the idea that when it comes to power it will close the nuclear power plants at the end of their design life, which is forty years. In the article I wrote for techopiniones Some time ago I explained that it is a myth. Actually, those forty years define a minimum period in which you have to guarantee that the plant works correctly and safely to ensure the investment that has been made. “It’s not an expiration date.”

Beyond the conflicting opinions that some experts in the energy market have, reality prevails. As we have seen, it is essential to replace the energy currently generated by nuclear plants with energy from non-polluting sources. And, furthermore, it is necessary to address the dismantling of the plants in conditions of maximum security. The Spanish public companies Enusa and Ensa propose the construction of a portable and modular plant expressly designed to process tons of medium and low radioactivity waste from Spanish nuclear power plants. This is one part of the plan, but we will keep track of it very closely to keep you up to date with everything that is to come.

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