In the United States elections, a question marked part of the agenda: the “nuclear issue”. Trump will have to face a complex landscape, with growing tensions and looming deadlines for key treaties. Russia has suspended inspections of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which limits deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550, while their renewal must occur in 2026 to avoid an arms race. Furthermore, the international agreement with Iran expires in 2025, leaving open the possibility of the country developing nuclear weapons. And then there’s China, who could double its nuclear arsenal by 2030, according to the Pentagon. The United States already has the recipe.

Project 25. Under this pseudonym hides a initiative developed by the Heritage Foundation and a group of former Trump administration officials to serve as a political roadmap. The plan proposes radical measures to reform various areas of the United States government, with a prominent focus on military and national security policies, and, very importantly, including the expansion of the country’s nuclear arsenal.

Among its proposals, as we will see, is the resumption of nuclear teststhe development of new weapons and the modernization of the nuclear program, defying international treaties such as the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban (CTBT). His approach seeks to position the nation on a “war footing” against powers such as China and Russia, with a marked emphasis on increasing military capabilities, while cutting initiatives related to non-proliferation and other non-nuclear areas. Let’s see what else it involves.

Now it’s time to rearm. Everything indicates that, after decades of dismantling nuclear weapons, the world is facing a new arms race. The United States, Russia and China are developing and expanding their arsenals. We told it recently, Russia is testing advanced nuclear cruise missiles, China is building silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles, and the United States, perhaps the furthest behind, plans to spend nearly $2 trillion on modernizing its nuclear capacity.

Under this scenario, Project 2025backed by conservative sectors and linked to the Trump administration since before the elections, seeks position the US nuclear infrastructure on that so-called “war footing”increasing production, diversifying the arsenal and reintroducing nuclear tests.

The project, inside. In this regard, the program proposes measures such as accelerated production of plutonium nucleithe development of new weapons and, something that the older ones surely recognize: the return of the B83 nuclear bomb, 80 times more powerful than that of Hiroshima, together with the restart of nuclear tests, suspended since 1992.

There is more. It is also seeking to cut funds for non-nuclear research in laboratories such as Los Álamos to redirect them towards weapons projects. In addition, and although some experts consider that the tests are unnecessary due to the advanced computer models available, Project 2025 insists on preparing to carry out tests or weapons trials within six months if necessary.

Economic reasons. There is no doubt, unlike the Cold War, where it would be said that ideology guided nuclear expansion, the new arms race is driven by hard and fast numbers: lucrative contracts for defense contractors. These companies have significantly influenced on the political agenda, financing studies that justify rearmament and exerting pressure on Washington through lobbyists and political contributions.

The programs like the Sentinel systemwhich includes the construction of new missile silos, will not only increase the nuclear arsenal, but will enrich a small group of corporations.

And geopolitics? It is the other leg to deal with. First of all, Project 2025 raises reject the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)the same one that Russia already renounced in 2023. This could trigger a cascade of nuclear tests in other countries, such as China and North Korea, intensifying the arms race. Additionally, the New START treaty, the last nuclear control agreement between Russia and the United States, expires in 2026. The Trump administration, according to expertswill not prioritize its renewal, which would aggravate nuclear competition.

Last but not least, all these possible nuclear tests and the, hopefully unlikely, potential use of modern weapons would have catastrophic consequences. A study in Nature from 2022 estimated that a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia could end the lives of 5 billion peoplemainly due to the impact on food production. As if that were not enough, the nuclear waste generated by new tests would increase global pollution.

Criticisms and challenges. Many. Experts such as Joseph Cirincione and Sharon Squassoni They have warned about the dangers of this approach, which returns us to the starting point of the “nuclear” beginning of the last century. They argue that the accumulation of weapons does not increase overall securitybut quite the opposite, which encourages destabilization. Furthermore, the Project 2025 proposals face the challenge of renovating testing facilities in Nevada, a process that could take years.

The “wound” of the past. Most of the experts who have raised the alarm remember the more or less recent past. Between 1946 and 1958, The United States conducted 67 nuclear tests in the Marshall Islands, including the devastating test of Operation Bravo in 1954the most powerful explosion in American history, a thousand times greater than the Hiroshima bomb.

These tests left a legacy of destruction known as the “Nuclear Wound”. Contaminated lands and oceans, displaced communities and generations affected by radiation-related diseases. The devastating effects of these tests still linger in the environment and in the collective memory of Pacific Islanders and American soldiers exposed to the explosions.

For all this, the Project 2025 proposal to resume nuclear testing, not only seems a dangerous setback, but, in some ways, a betrayal of the progress achieved in disarmament and nuclear diplomacy.

Image | Kelly Michaels

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