What used to be two powers are now three, at least. Nuclearization in a geopolitical key has mutated and in what way in recent times. This very particular arms race has expanded nations, and we told it in August in “Chinese key”, and recently in “USA key” with that Project 25 in the background with the arrival of Donald Trump. If all these signs still offered some kind of doubt, Washington just banished them with 182 pages.
The Asian arsenal. The document states that China continues to increase its military capacityespecially its nuclear arsenal, despite a series of corruption investigations that have shaken the upper echelons of the People’s Liberation Army (EPL). According to the Pentagonwho has launched the work, the country has added approximately 100 nuclear warheads in the last year, reaching an estimated total of more than 600 by mid-2024with plans to exceed 1,000 by 2030.
There is much more. Although still far from the figures of the United States and Russia, this expansion aims to provide the nation with greater destructive capacity, perhaps the greatest in the short term, along with a large number of strategic options in the event of conflict with the United States or whoever. .
Expanding military infrastructure. The documents indicate that China has completed three missile fields with 320 silos in its northern deserts, and which continues to build more silos to house Dongfeng-5 missilescapable of carrying multiple warheads. This military modernization seeks to significantly improve its ability to cause devastating damage in an eventual nuclear exchange and expand its ability to threaten American cities, military installations and leaders, according to the document.
Diversification. In addition to increasing its arsenal, China is developing a diversified nuclear force that includes low-power precision strike missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with multiple escalation options. This approach would represent an evolution from its traditional nuclear posture. Although Beijing maintains a stated “no first use” policythe speed of its nuclear modernization has generated alarm in the United States, according to the Pentagon.
Advanced technologies. The report highlights that China is developing advanced systems such as hypersonic glide vehicles and fractional orbital bombardment systemsWe have commented on some of them. Both technologies, designed in part to counter US missile defense capabilities, make a nuclear attack more difficult to detect and track. In this regard, in 2021 China carried out a test combining both technologies, consolidating its position as a leader in weapons innovation.
Internal challenges: corruption. As we said at the beginning, for the US defense branch, China’s military progress has faced interruptions due to corruption investigations that have implicated senior EPL officialsincluding defense ministers accused of accepting bribes and selling promotions. Although these scandals could have shaken trust in military leaders, the Pentagon believes their impact on modernization programs has been limited, describing them as a “minor obstacle”.
Vitamins by sea. China’s Navy, like Russia, has significantly increased its reach, establishing itself as an emerging maritime force with the capacity to operate beyond its regional waters. According to the Pentagon report, The EPL has more than 370 ships and has conducted training and operations in distant oceans, including the Eastern Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, as well as port visits in Africa and the Middle East.
Since 2008, it maintains a continuous presence in the Gulf of Aden with its permanent base in Djiboutiwhich underlines its ambition to project power beyond its borders.
Fleet modernization. In this regard, old platforms have been replaced by modern, multi-purpose ships equipped with advanced anti-ship, anti-submarine and anti-aircraft weapons systems. Among them highlights the Renhai class cruiser (Type 055)with a 112-cell vertical launch system and multi-mission capabilities, surpassing its American counterparts in size.
Furthermore, the development of aircraft carriers such as the Fujian, the first locally designed with electromagnetic catapultsexpands aerial projection capabilities. This effort is complemented by a growing fleet of amphibious ships, such as the Type 071 and Type 075 classes, prepared for expeditionary operations and long-range logistical support.
Taiwan. In a report of this type, the latent threat that we have been reporting on over the past few months and that is closely linked to this naval reinforcement could not be missing. The United States indicates that part of China’s current military efforts are directed at Taiwan, considered by Beijing as an indivisible part of its territory.
Although they have increased air and naval raids near the island, the Pentagon notes that China still faces significant shortcomings, such as limitations in urban warfare and maintaining supplies over long distances, which make a reliable amphibious invasion difficult. A possible attack on Taiwan, at least for now, is thought to be a considerable political and military risk for the Communist Party.
American response. And what does the United States do? To counter China, the Biden administration appears to have strengthened alliances in the Asia-Pacific region and has designed force dispersal strategies to facilitate rapid strikes against Chinese assets. There is no doubt, the report could influence the approach of the incoming Trump administration, redirecting attention toward the growing Chinese military threat in a global context already marked by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Implications. With this document that has seen the light, perhaps the debate in Washington on the need to modernize and expand nuclear capabilities through Project 25 is better explained. China is transforming its nuclear force into a key pillar of its military power, integrating advanced technology and expanding its arsenal at an alarming rate for Americans.
This development, along with its focus on overcoming American defenses, reconfigures the global strategic landscape, bringing the Asian nation closer to the level of nuclear threat that the United States and Russia have historically represented. Plus: this modernization and expansion by sea represents a direct challenge to American naval dominance, a cornerstone of the global order since World War II.
With a shipbuilding industry 200 times more productive than that of the United States, according to the Office of Naval IntelligenceChina accelerates its ability to project maritime power and dispute strategic control of key routes and territories near the United States in the near future. A report, in short, that seems to pave the way for the next administration to open (even more) the tap on defense spending.
Image | Steve Jurvetson, Philip McMaster
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