Optimistic, challenging and with a staging under a carefully organized format, Vladimir Putin has closed the year with an extensive television conference (it extended beyond four hours) addressed to the nation where he reviewed the entire agenda that has taken place. The event had as its central themes the war conflicts in which Russia is the main actor, along with a little about the nation’s economy and a threatening proposal to the historical enemy.
A conference to raise your spirits. As we said, the event came to close the information year in Russia under the title “Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin”. In addition to speaking and detailing the events, Putin included selected questions from regional journalists, war bloggers and ordinary citizens.
Always with an optimistic tone, the president highlighted the military advancesespecially in Ukraine and Syria, stating that the Russian army is achieving all its objectives in what it calls a “special military operation.” According to the Russian leader, forces are gaining territory daily and the change on the front is “palpable.”
No to Zelensky and “maybe” to Trump. Putin reiterated his position of not recognizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyas a legitimate interlocutor and stated that he would not bow to any agreement with his government. Even so, the Russian leader expressed his willingness to negotiate in the future under a series of parameters. Namely: that Ukraine adopt a neutral status, not join NATO, reduce its military capacity and that the West lift sanctions against Russia.
Furthermore, Putin ruled out a ceasefire, at least imminent, advocating an agreement that offers “long-term guarantees.” These conditions have been quickly answered on the other side, describing them as maximalist and unacceptable for Ukraine and its allies. However, Putin showed willingness to meet with Donald Trump, noting that would be open to discussing peace proposals raised by the next US administration.
The Russian economy. Another of the legs that was treated. In this regard, he did not shy away from explaining that the prolonged invasion has begun to take its toll on the Russian economy. With annual inflation of 9.3%, the Russian Central Bank was forced to raise interest rates to a historic 21% in October.
Although Putin recognized these figures as “alarming”assured that real wages and disposable income have shown growth, describing the economic situation as “generally stable and secure.”
Nuclear posture. The Kremlin leader emphasized that update of the Russian nuclear doctrine that we discussed a few weeks ago, thus allowing preemptive attacks in response to significant threats, including conventional ones, backed by nuclear powers. He also highlighted, once again, his Oreshnik ballistic missile as an example of Russian military capability.
Missile duel. And then came the star moment of the appearance, perhaps a bravado, perhaps not, Putin, in a defiant tone, suggested an idea that no one expected: a “missile duel” with the United States in Ukraine to demonstrate the ability of new Russian hypersonic Oreshnik missiles against US defense systems. The statements, there is no doubt, reflect this more aggressive policy and seek to consolidate the perception of Russian military strength.
A statement that was quickly met with skepticism and criticism, especially by Zelensky, who described the proposal as totally irrational. According to Putin, for this hypothetical duel both sides should select a designated target in a kind of real game where the selected enclave must be protected by American missiles against the Russians. “We are ready for such an experiment,” Putin said.
The problem is Oreshnik. We told it at the time we learned about the appearance of the missile. A hypothetical “missile duel” as proposed by Putin should explain what is understood as such to initiate escalation. Things are known about Oreshnik, but others are not very important because Russia itself has never revealed the real capacity of this combat hybrid.
The nation first fired the missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Nov. 21, in what Putin presented as a response to Ukraine’s first use of American ATACM ballistic missiles and British Storm Shadows to attack Russian territory with Western permission. .
Origin and design. The analysts who recovered the launched missile have explained that Oreshnik looks like an intermediate range ballistic missile designed as a modification of the intercontinental RS-26 Rubezh (although officially discontinued in 2018, the Pentagon suggests that the design was partially resumed). In this case, Oreshnik has a maximum range of up to 5,500 kilometersenough to cover most of Europe, but less than the Rubezh’s global reach.
In addition, it presents physical differences, such as a smaller diameter, which suggests adaptations for closer targets. Although it is still a theory, if we pay attention to its similarity with the RS-26, the latter was developed starting in 2008 by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, a solid fuel ballistic missilemobile and intermediate range (IRBM). Derived from the RS-24 Yars, it was approximately 12 meters long with a diameter close to 1.8 meters. Although it reached intercontinental ranges in tests, this was only possible with light loads, which limited it to intermediate ranges with nuclear warheads or conventional. Again, based on this, we can get an idea of Oreshnik’s reach.
Ability. Oreshnik can carry up to six warheadseach equipped with submunitions. This design is unusual for long-range ballistic missiles, but analysts suggest it takes advantage of existing technologies, optimizing their effectiveness without requiring complete redesigns. That said, and although the recent attack in Dnipro caused no deaths and damage to the factory was limited, the impact demonstrates the destructive capacity of the missile, even with inert warheads, thanks to the speed with which they descend.
The war and its impact on the nation. Russia’s proposal/challenge/bluster must be understood in the context of the event, and it is assumed by common sense that a missile duel could never take place. But the simple idea does seem to have a clear underlying message. The use of Oreshnik not only seeks advantages on the battlefield, but also project the resilience of the Russian military industry against Western sanctions. The missile, the longest range used in Europeunderlines the nation’s intention to demonstrate its technological superiority and its willingness to escalate the conflict if necessary.
By the way, Putin ended the television marathon by admitting that the invasion of Ukraine has changed his personal perspective, indicating that He has lost his sense of humor and rarely laughs. In addition, he defended his decision to start the war in 2022, arguing that he avoided a national collapse and that, if he had had the opportunity, he would have started the offensive earlier and with better preparation. For the leader, the operation not only saved Russia, but took her away from the “brink of the abyss”.
Image | Global Outlook, national
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