With just one month left to take office as president of the United States, Donald Trump has threatened the European Union commercially.

Trade war. President-elect Donald Trump has warned to Brussels that it must commit to buying large quantities of oil and gas from the US to avoid a trade war.

trump has published a threatening message on his Truth Social account: “I told the European Union that they should compensate for their enormous deficit with the United States by purchasing our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, there will be tariffs until the end!”

The European Union. Currently, the EU’s situation is focused on the search for other options to stop depending on Russian gas, and the purchase of American liquefied natural gas has been a lifeline for the bloc.

This message from the elected president has taken EU officials by surprise, who have declared to the Financial Times that they consider this threat strange, given that the president of the community executive, Úrsula von der Leyen, as soon as she learned of the election results in the US, wrote a tweet on the old Twitter, now X, to calm the waters and called for a transatlantic partnership. Furthermore, before this direct confrontation, the EU was designing possible measures to avoid tariffs and increase purchases of American goods, such as liquefied natural gas or agricultural products.

EU officials’ response to Trump’s message has been to start working on possible trade retaliation if tariffs are imposed. However, as the bloc’s workers add, this trade war must be avoided, as it could affect other areas, such as defense.

What does it look like from the outside? The United States is one of the largest suppliers of LNG and oil to the European Union. In the first half of 2024, provided approximately 48% of LNG imports, while 16% came from Russia.

However, energy analysts have noted that the United States needs to expand its LNG production to meet growing demand from the EU. The analysts of the Bruegel group have recommended to the EU that it should back up any commitment to buy more American products with a credible threat of retaliation that could be implemented if the US decides to impose tariffs.

Regarding oil, according to Eurostat data, the United States has supplied 15% of EU imports during the third quarter of 2024, reflecting energy interdependence.

Tariffing everyone. During the election campaign, Donald Trump promised a plan for generalized tariffs up to 20% for everyone, with an increase of 25% for Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% for China. This measure has a strategic nature, since it is presented less than two years after the regonization of the USMCA, the trade agreement for the countries located in North America. This situation suggests that this could be a pressure tactic rather than a definitive policy. In fact, during his first term it was a common approach given his business style rather than his political experience.

In this situation, technology companies would be the most affected, because companies such as Foxconn, NVIDIA, Lenovo and LG would face problems in their supply chains, having to decide between assuming the new extra costs or reorganizing to avoid the increase, a task that would not be easy or quick.

In the most immediate. Meanwhile, Trump’s warning comes against a backdrop of tensions in Washington, where a high-stakes fight is raging to ensure continued funding for the U.S. government. A possible government shutdown loomed Friday after a plan supported for Trump to suspend the debt ceiling was rejected in the House of Representatives. In addition, it should be added that technology leaders such as Amazon, Meta and OpenAI have made donations for the inauguration ceremony in 2025 to ensure favorable treatment to protect their investments.

Image | Gage Skidmore and Stina Virkamäki

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