Ironies of the market, one of the industries that has innovated the most in recent years at Christmas is also one of the most traditional: the one with nougat. Maybe we can discuss (or not) if all his new creations can be called that, ‘nougat’; But what is undeniable is that manufacturers have decided to shake off prejudices by experimenting with new flavors. Over the last few years, tablets with flavors as shocking as the black beer, plankton, chips, ham, pine, Popcorn either strawberries with gin. And that among a very long and, above all, varied etcetera.

Curiously, this Christmas the headaches are being caused by one of its most traditional ingredients, cocoa.

Nougat without limits. Gone are the times when there were only a handful of nougat flavors on supermarket shelves. Today sweet lovers are in luck. In an evident effort to renew its image and deseasonalize demandnougat manufacturers have made an (almost) 180º turn in their strategy. And that has largely involved combining its traditional offering with new launches, innovating with flavors far from the traditional range and seeking alliances with recognizable names and brands in the sector, from multinationals (Lay’s, Chupa-Chups or Donuts) to chefs. as Dabid Muñoz either Albert Adrià.

An obsession that continues. The industry’s obsession with crazy flavors is not new. In fact, in Spain the fascination with “diverse nougats” can go back at least to the 19th centuryor even to the 18th century, when varieties of meat were already being explored. Over the last Christmas, however, the catalog has expanded with options such as potatoes, pine, Chupa-Chups, Donettes, Popcorn, chocolate with churros, ham…And that among a long list that continues to grow.

El Almendro and Estrella Galicia they added forces recently expanded its catalog with a black beer nougat. It may be shocking, but it is just one more example of the race to stand out in an increasingly competitive market with greater supply. Vicens presume Also having a nougat with Damm beer, the Almendro has completed its offer with other novelties, such as a Donettes nougat or one “Monopoly”and to the market have arrived tablets with flavors as diverse as saffron rice, plankton, fair apple or Cacaolatwhich reflects the interest that the expansion of Christmas candy generates in other branches of the sector.

Cocoa sours the party. Ironically, it has been another ingredient, much more traditional, that has brought the sector upside down this year: cocoa. And the reason is its cost. Immersed in their spiral of search for new flavors, nougat manufacturers have come across another spiral: that of a chocolate price driven upward by the worst “cocoa crisis” of the last decades. About her we have talked already on several occasions over the last few months, but it has been now, at Christmas, one of the times of greatest demand, when it has become more important.

A few days ago Isabel Sánchez, director of Delaviuda, assured in an interview with The Country that “the sector is doing everything possible” to ensure that the impact of the increase in cocoa prices on final consumers is “minimal”, and warned: “If we manufacturers had not assumed a part, we would be talking about minimum increases of 50 % for all products”.

“It’s going to decline a little”. The phrase is from Manuel Sánchez, head of administration of DosHermanos turrones, who during a talk with Europa Press warned of the foreseeable impact that the rise in cocoa costs will have. “Chocolate this year is going to decline a little due to the price, because it has really risen quite a bit. It is being noticed, but it is temporary and I suppose that next year it will stabilize again and recover its normal sales.” To be more precise, Europa Press details that chocolate nougat has skyrocketed between “30 and 40%” due to the cost of cocoa.

The bitter note. The increase in chocolate prices comes at a particularly sweet time for the sector, which after several campaigns marked by the shadow of inflation hope to have a good Christmas. “There is a lot of optimism,” confessed last week the general secretary of the Spanish Ducel Association (Produlce), Rubén Moreno, told Efe.

Although it recognizes that it is still too early to share definitive figures, the group expects turnover to grow by around 4%, with a balanced evolution between sales volume and value. The negative rating was again given to chocolate products, influenced by the “historical highs” in the cost of raw materials.

Pay attention to the reduflation. Manufacturers are not the only ones who have shared their feelings and forecasts for Christmas 2024. At the beginning of November Facua launched a report in which he warned about another phenomenon for this Christmas, the reduflationa combination of “reduction” and “inflation” and that represents another form of increased merchandise prices. Instead of revising prices upwards, manufacturers maintain their selling rates by decreasing the size and quantity of what they sell. The result: same price, but in exchange for less product.

Facua’s warning focused on Christmas sweets, also placing special emphasis on those made with chocolate. For example, the association cited a chocolate nougat from the Suchard brand. According to their data, in 2023 the tablet available in most stores cost 3.99 euros and contained 260 g. This year the price is the same, but for 230 g. “The price per kilo has increased by 13%, despite the fact that at first glance the majority of consumers do not detect that 30 g drop.”

Cocoa, in the spotlight. The key to the complex scenario that nougat manufacturers face this Christmas is the spiraling prices of chocolate. This same week the specialized platform Investing.com warned that cocoa futures in New York were at historic highs, easily exceeding $12,000 per ton, driven by concerns about production in the Ivory Coast.

Service tables like Trading Economics or one’s own Investing They graphically capture this evolution, with prices that just a year ago were below $5,000. The reasons: a pronounced gap between demand and production, the drop in stock and harvests marked by rains and diseases such as “black pod”produced by Phytophthora. One of the keys to the rise in cocoa futures so far this year is in fact the bad harvests in West Africa.

Images | Wikipedia and Tetiana Bykovets (Unsplash)

In techopiniones | In 2008, nougat was the ugly duckling of Christmas, now it is the star dish. This is how the industry has turned around