Are more than 8 billion people in the world. These last two centuries, population growth has been brutal and it is expected to continue growing until reaching 10.3 billion people. This will happen towards the end of the century and, then the population will start to fall. There is a serious problem in all this: the planet must be able to feed 2 billion more people during this century.

The good news is that, with the relevant techniques and actions, it will not only be possible to satisfy food needs, but also increase the availability of food per capita between 2020 and 2100 while not destroying the planet, achieving decarbonization objectives thanks to renewable ones.

The parameters. In a article Published in Frontiers, a model developed by MIT is analyzed that contemplates a climate stabilization scenario 1.5 degrees above that proposed a few years ago. In this scenario, the demand for certain needs increases, such as energy and food, which implies rethinking current agricultural and energy practices.

What researchers have discovered is that effective nature-based solutions (NBS) approaches are essential to address all new scenarios. Thus, sufficient food per capita will be provided for the rest of the century, but appropriate policies and radical changes in current practices are needed.

Land analysis. Of the 15 gigahectares -Gha- of land on the planet, it is estimated that 10.4 Gha are habitable. Of that space, we currently have 4 Gha occupied by forests, 3.7 Gha by grazing, 1.1 Gha by crops. It is enough and, in fact, the models indicate that these grazing lands could be reduced by 420 Mha, freeing up space for reforestation and something that seems key in the future: renewable energy.

Renewable. According to the analysis, by 2100 it is estimated that between 2.5 and 3.5 Gha will be used for NBS, while between 0.4 and 0.6 will be used in renewable energy generation. This is essential to achieve decarbonization and the analysis highlights three sections:

• Growth: from 1% of land destined for renewables used in 2020, we will go to 5% in 2100.
• Distribution: Between 0.2 and 0.3 Gha will be used in bioenergy, while wind and solar will occupy between 0.2 and 0.35 gigahectares.
• Production: By the end of the century, renewables will contribute between 300 and 600 EJ annually, which will make it possible to cover demand while achieving environmental objectives.

Trapping CO₂. One of the keys to achieving these decarbonization objectives is not only the use of renewables, but also directly capturing CO₂. We are on that path, even researching materials that allow passively trap CO₂as certain transgenic woodsbut in the study two strategies are specified:

• Reforestation: reaching 3.7 gigatonnes of CO₂ captured each year by mid-century.
• Pasture optimization: with regenerative techniques or biocharwe will be able to “sequester” up to 2 GtCO₂ annually.

Agroforestry. These are more or less known terms, but another key to feeding a growing population without destroying the Earth involves concepts such as agroforestry. These are actions to mix trees and shrubs with crops or animal production systems. It’s something that’s been used for centuries, but a term for it wasn’t created until relatively recently, and there are many different strategies.

For example, creating windbreaks with trees to protect crops or planting trees with high commercial value in rows, between crops. Thus, crops are a constant source of income for farmers while the trees grow and can be harvested, then providing a different income such as wood for biomass or construction. This means more trees planted, so more CO₂ is captured while improving biodiversity and improving soil fertility and structure.

Bag with legumes. And, among the foods best suited to meet both these objectives and the growing demand worldwide, are legumes. They are classified as essential because they do not need as many chemical fertilizers, which improves soil fertility and reduces greenhouse gas emissions.

Also because they are capable of growing in adverse conditions, which makes them a key resource for regions affected by climate change. And, furthermore, the nutritional impact is very positive thanks to its caloric content, essential proteins and key nutrients. Thanks to them, even in high demand scenarios, the availability of nutrients can be guaranteed.

Challenges. As we can see, in the analysis there are a lot of techniques and strategies that are related, but it can be summarized as: there is land for everything, but you have to use the space optimally. Now, there are challenges ahead that are also well known. One is competition for land, since in densely populated countries, NBS strategies require rigorous planning, since land will have to be freed up for other activities if we want to intensify crops.

Economic incentives must also be developed to carry out these sustainable practices. If it is about reducing the number of hectares for grazing and increasing crops, the business incentive must be there. And biodiversity indicators must also be integrated in a way that collateral damage is avoided. That is, the expansion of NBS and renewable energy systems does not come into conflict with the flora and fauna of each area.

In the end, the sum of it all must be the use of policies that promote the efficient use of land for food, energy and nature (including CO₂ capture) while ensuring long-term commitments to continue mitigating the effects of climate change. climate change.

Images | Einboeck.official, Syced

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